Big White Real Estate Report: Q1 2024 Update
What a busy few weeks. It all started with guests visiting during their Ontario March Break and Spring Break in many parts of the United States, then the local BC and Alberta March Break. The end of the March was capped off with an Easter weekend just perfect to welcome Spring!
The entire season has been one of warmer weather. Fortunately, we were blessed enough to reach up to about a 250cm alpine base at one point so even with the above freezing temperatures and sunny skies there has been plenty of excellent skiing to be had.
Big White real estate for the first quarter of 2024 continued to be relatively busy; though interestingly, there were only 3 transactions recorded during the last two weeks of March. In the end, there were a total of 30 Big White vacation properties sold in the first quarter of 2024. This included 2 detached private ski homes, 10 townhouses, 17 ski condos, and 1 building lot.
Big White Sales Numbers and Values
The number of sales is exactly flat compared to Q1 last year, making it the second Q1 in a row to see transaction levels as low as they were way back in 2015. Q1 was only modestly slower than the previous quarter with 14.2% less transactions than in Q4-2023.
The average sale price for Q1-2024 was CDN $768,666, representing a 6.96% rise YOY. The increase is even more substantial when you compare it to the CDN $664,361 in Q4-2022. So while the number of transactions was down quarter-to-quarter by that 14.2% noted earlier, the aggregate dollar value of those transactions was down by just 7.28%. Total sales in dollar volume for Q1-2024 was CDN $21.56 Million, so also down slightly from CDN $23.06 Million in Q1-2023.
This past quarter’s average sale price was the highest average sales price ever recorded at Big White! But don’t let this fool you into thinking that Big White property values are higher than ever. They are not. The market definitely peaked in Q1 of 2022 on the cusp of the post-pandemic rapid interest rate rise. This is where a deeper dive is necessary; to uncover, as I have in the past, the effects of transaction composition.
In terms of real estate markets, Big White is a complex market. There are new homes and 50-year old homes, there are small hotel-style suites and expansive vacation homes, there are condos, townhomes, detached homes, there are ski homes in the heart of the village, and others a 30-min walk away — I could go on but I imagine you get the point. And, just as diverse as the product, so are the owners: we have first-time purchasers, middle aged families, grandparents, year-round residents, part-time residents, vacationers, and investors, and each at every end of the socioeconomic spectrum.
In Q1-2022, at a time when Big White property sellers were realizing some of the highest sale prices, the average sale price was just $664,361. During that quarter there were 63 sale transactions. Interestingly, 62% of those were ski condos and 14% were building lots, with the private ski homes and townhouses only making up 24%. That was just 15 homes. Fast forward 2 years, this past quarter appears at the surface to have seen substantially less sales but when we isolate just private ski homes and townhouses we see a different picture — a total of 12 homes making up 40% of all transactions. As we look at how each segment performed we’re going to come back to this.
Big White Ski Condos
Looking a little more closely at these numbers, we see that of the 17 condo residences sold at Big White in Q1. This represents a 15% decrease in sales activity YOY. The lowest priced condo sold for just CDN $180,000 and the highest priced condo sold for CDN $979,000. The average sale price for Big White condos was CDN $531,353. This average sale price is up 11.91% from Q1-2023 when it was CDN $474,825. In fact, this figure is up slightly from Q1-2022 (“the peak”) when it was $526,909.
Are Big White ski condo’s truly selling for more than they were two years ago? As stated earlier in reference to all Big White properties, no, they are not. Q1-2022 saw the sale of 39 ski condos! That’s 2.3X more transactions than this past quarter. If we zoom in a bit further we can see that of those 39, only 14 of them were 2-bedroom or 3-bedroom ski condos built since 2000 (what I call “newer condos”) and the average price of those was CDN $753,557. With an average size of 1,128 sq.ft. (105m²), on an adjusted-for-size basis the average selling price was $668.04/sq.ft. ($7,191/m²). In contrast, there were only 8 transactions of 2-bedroom or 3-bedroom ski condos built since 2000 that sold this past quarter and the average price of those was CDN $686,813. With an average size of 1,181 sq.ft. (110m²) the adjusted-for-size average price was $581.55/sq.ft. ($6,260/m²). This represents a 12.9% drop since the Q1-2022 peak. Even within one segment, ski condos, some properties are selling for more and some are definitely selling for less.
I believe the later analysis is much more representative of the current value of ski condos at Big White than the headline — average sale price is up 11.91% from this time last year. Ultimately, if you are considering a transaction on such a property either as a current owner thinking about selling or as someone considering a purchaser I urge you to explore the current and historical sales specific to the relevant segments of the market. If you have an older ski condo in Tamarack Inn or Greystokes Inn, let’s take a look at what other 1970s ski condos have sold for. If you want to buy a ski condo in Stonegate Resort, let’s take a look at what other 2000+ ski condos have sold for in Stonegate Resort and Stonebridge Resort.
This quarter saw a 4-way tie for the top selling condo building at Big White. There were 2 sales in each: Copper Kettle Lodge, Sundance Resort, Stonebridge Resort, and The Eagles. The fastest sale occurred within just 20 days of the public listing and the longest took 603 days. Yes, it’s true. What was wrong with it? (This was not a property that I marketed). Honestly, there was nothing wrong with the property. It was a fantastic ski condo in what’s usually a popular building in a great location. It was on the market for a long time, marketed separately by 2 different, well-respected, Big White real estate professionals. It was simply priced wrong and was an example of a seller chasing a dropping market, unwilling to accept reality for more than a year. The average time on the market was 142 days. The median time on the market was just 97 days.
Ski Condo Inventory
Now let’s take a deeper look at inventory trends for ski condos. As already noted, Q1 saw ski condos selling after a wide range of time on the market. While almost half (47%) of the properties sold in Q1 were on the market for less than 90 days, the other half all took more than 90 days to reach a successful sale. In this case, as was shared earlier, the median stat is probably the most representative; of that half that took more than 90 days, it actually took them almost twice as long to sell, at 175 days. This may seem unusual compared to the few years just before and after the pandemic but historically it is not. Also consider that at the onset of the quarter 38% of the 50 ski condos publicly listed for sale had already been on the market more than 90 days.
Q1 saw an additional 36 ski condos come to market. Only a small portion, 11%, of those new-to-market ski condos sold during the quarter. Each month of the quarter saw roughly proportional numbers of new listings with 12, 14, and 10 listings respectively. With a few ski condos coming off the market without a successful sale we now have 60 ski condos on the market as we move into Q2. This represents a 20% increase in inventory quarter-to-quarter but is very comparable to last year when there were 55 ski condos for sale at the end of Q1. Inventory is only up 9.09% YOY. Ultimately, with slightly fewer sales and slightly more inventory we’re seeing months of inventory tick upwards to about 10.5 months of inventory.
In a typical real estate market such as what would exist in a larger town or city, months of inventory (sometimes represented as a sell through rate — the ratio of sales to current listings) is used as an indicator of market balance. When you have an increasing number of months of inventory, you have a growing disparity between supply and demand. In that typical real estate market it’s generally accepted that when months of inventory is at 4 or less, market conditions are increasingly favouring sellers while if months of inventory is at a 6 or higher, market conditions are increasingly favouring purchasers. When analyzing the Big White real estate market we must acknowledge scale and diversity as well; for instance, you might think having 10.5 months of condo inventory would give a purchaser a wonderful selection but in reality if you are a purchaser right now, looking for a 2-bedroom ski condo with at least 1,000 sq.ft. (93m²) of living space, and was built since 2000, there are currently only 3 options on the market. When considering location on the mountain, the view, the layout, or building amenities, having 3 options to choose from is basically equivalent to having no selection at all!
Ski Condo Strata Fees
One of the most common set of questions I get from curious purchasers are related to a building or community’s common expenses and the monthly strata fee. While these vary from building to building and data is hard to compile I’ve recently begun tracking the strata fee of the properties that sold during the quarter so as to attempt to identify any trends that exist. Of the 17 ski condos sold in Q1 the average strata fee was CDN $485.07/month. The lowest strata fee was just $177/month for a 2-bedroom condo in Snow Pine Estates and the highest was $749/month for a 3-bedroom condo in Stonegate Resort. Adjusting for size, the average strata fee was CDN $0.55 per square foot of living space ($5.92/m²).
Big White Townhouses
Now looking at townhouses of which 10 Big White townhouses sold in Q1 This represents a 66.66% increase in the number of sale transactions YOY. The lowest priced townhouse sold for CDN $490,000 and the highest priced townhouse sold for CDN $1,085,000. The average price for Big White townhouses was CDN $813,600 which is a drop of 14.2% from CDN $948,750 in Q1-2023 and also represents a slight 4.59% drop from the previous quarter.
The average size of a townhouse sold in Q1 was 1,623 sq.ft. which translates into an average selling price of $501.29/sq.ft ($5,395/m²). On this adjusted-for-size basis Big White townhouses have actually come up in value since Q1-2023 when the adjusted-for-size average price was $455.69/sq.ft. ($4,905/m²). With this said, I can’t stress enough the effects of the diminishing return relationship between living space and price per unit of living space; only 3 properties greater than 1,500 sq.ft. (139m²) in size sold at or above this adjusted-for-size average price while the 2 small townhouses, under 1,000 sq.ft. (93m²) had adjusted prices as much $690/sq.ft. ($7,427/m²). This is to say that if one year’s Q1 sees a distinctly larger average size of home made up from the composition of sales and another year’s Q1 sees a distinctly smaller average size of home, we should expect even this adjusted-for-size comparison to be misleading.
Of the 10 Big White townhouses sold in Q1, 6 of them are between 1,500-2000 sq.ft. (139-186m²) in size so we will call those “typical size”. If we look at just this subset of the composition we can see they sold between $735,000 and $885,000. With 5 of 6 coming in even more tightly between $806,000 and $885,000. The average sale price was $826,833 and the average size was 1,654 sq.ft. (154m²). These average figures are very much inline with the overall stats noted earlier. Where it gests interesting is when you look at the same size townhouses that sold in Q1-2023 — there were only 2 of them, which is not a great sample size, nonetheless, the average sale price was $974,350 and the average size was 1,758 sq.ft. (163m²). On an adjusted for size basis, Q1-2024 typical size townhouses sold for $499.89/sq.ft. ($5,380/m²) while Q1-2023 typical size townhouses sold for $554.23/sq.ft. ($5,966/m²), 9.8% less.
No one townhouse community saw more than one sale during the quarter and unlike during the previous quarter there was no particular neighbourhood on the mountain that appears to be more popular than another. We saw townhouses sell in Happy Valley, White Forest, in Sundance Resort, in the Village, and in Snow Pines. The lowest priced sale was a 2-bedroom townhouse in Whitetail in Happy Valley which sold for $490,000. The highest priced sale was a 4-bedroom townhouse in The Pinnacles in the White Forest neighbourhood which sold for $1,085,000. The fastest sale occurred within just 18 days of the public listing and the longest took 269 days. The average time on the market was 139 days.
Townhouse Inventory
Now let’s take a deeper look at inventory trends for townhouse ski homes. Q1 began with 34 townhouses on the market and throughout the past three months another 16 came to market. With 10 of these properties selling and 6 coming off the market without success, 34 townhouses remain for sale at the end of the quarter. This figure is flat quarter-to-quarter but is representative of a slight increase to inventory throughout 2023 as there had been only 29 townhouses for sale at the end of Q1-2023 — so there has been a 17.2% increase YOY. With nearly double the townhouse sales compared to last year, even with slightly more inventory we’re seeing months of inventory drop considerably from 14.50 to 10 months of inventory.
As we move into Q2, townhouse inventory, distinctly, is aging. The average time on the market is 171 days even though 38% of these were new to market during Q1. The median may be a better figure but even then that is 152 days. When we look more closely we see that of the 13 townhouses that were new to market during the quarter but have yet to sell, only 2 of them came to market in March. Are would-be sellers holding out? For the other 62% of properties, the shortest time on the market is 101 days while the longest is at 128 days. The average time on the market for those 21 properties is 246 days and the median is 192 days.
Let’s take a closer look at those 21 townhouses. The average asking price is CDN $1,028,119 and the average size is 1,850 sq.ft. (172m²). On an adjusted-for-size basis, these townhouses are seeking a valuation at $586.55/sq.ft ($6,314/m²). In contrast, remember that the average sale price was only $813,600 — more than $200,000 less than what these homes are asking, on average, and that the average selling price during Q1 was only $501.29/sq.ft. ($5,396/m²) on a smaller average size property. Even in light of this market reality, 8 of the 21 properties have held their original asking price even as they continue to not see success in a sale. The other 13 have reduced their asking price with discounts coming in between $14,900 to $183,000. The average price reduction among all 21 properties of $47,057 and an average among only those who have reduced their price at $76,030. There is very clearly a sizable discrepancy between what would-be sellers want to sell their Big White townhouse for and what prospective purchasers are willing to pay.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some incredibly good deals come in this segment as inventory ages further in Q2 and Q3.
Townhouse Strata Fees
Of the 10 Big White townhouses sold in Q1 the average strata fee was CDN $583,23. The lowest strata fee was just $277/month for a small 2-bedroom townhouse in Trapper’s Crossing and the highest was $1,112/month for a 3-bedroom + den townhouse in Towering Pines. Adjusting for size, the average strata fee was CDN $0.36 per square foot of living space ($3.87/m²).
Big White Private Ski Homes
Now looking at private ski homes of which there were just 2 that sold in Q1. Feathertop Estates remains the “it” spot on the mountain. This exclusive community saw the sale of a very new 3,200 sq.ft. (297m²) luxury vacation home for CDN $2.8 Million and a much more modest-sized 1,800 sq.ft. (167m²), and still quite new, ski home for $1.2M. The average sale price for private ski homes was CDN $2 Million which is right on par with the average sale price of CDN $1.97M from the same quarter last year. The average size of the private ski homes sold was 2501 sq.ft (232m²) which means the average price on an adjusted-for-size basis was $799.63/sq.ft. ($8,607/m²). While the average sale price remains flat YOY, on this adjusted-for-size basis, a value of $799.63/sq.ft. ($8,607/m²) reflects a 20.6% increase in value compared to the $663.13/sq.ft. ($7,138/m²) homes were selling for in Q1-2023.
A significant factor in valuing private ski homes a huge contributing factor for potential purchasers is current replacement cost — what would it cost to build the same home today? Record high building material and labour costs have pushed up the costs of building a brand new custom ski home considerably which is definitely supporting the valuations we’re seeing on these private ski homes. Not to mention that with relatively limited home sites on the mountain, especially within close proximity to the Village centre, finding the right location can also be a challenge; and you have to be prepared to wait anywhere from 18-36 months before you can use your home depending on the time of year at which you begin the process.
Available inventory of private ski homes is flat YOY; however, that does include the same 4 brand new pre-construction homes which are for sale in the all-new Black Forest community of The Glades at Big White, all of which remain available even after more than 200 days on the market. There is only 1 home currently for sale in Feathertop Estates.
Big White Building Lots
Lastly, a quick look at building lot sales of which we saw 1 sold in Q4. This was a mountainfront homesite with breathtaking views of the Monashee Mountains located in The Terraces which sold for $390,000 after more than a year 182 days on the market. What may be the most interesting is that this valuation is roughly half of the most recent building lot to sell in neighbouring Feathertop Estates. That property sold in the previous quarter for $775,000 after more than a year on the market. The two lots were very similar in size, location, and terrain, with the greatest difference being elevation and thus the perspective of the view and ski access. This is evidence that small attributes can make a meaningful difference in a properties valuation and also that with time there is always some potential to find a purchaser that is looking for exactly what you are offering.
When it comes to inventory, we began the quarter with 10 vacant building sites on the market and now, even with one sale, move into the 2nd quarter with 13 vacant building sites. Those properties have been on the market for an average of 209 days or about 7 months. As I noted in my report for Q4-2023, I speculate that the single greatest factor holding purchasers back from acquiring building lots at Big White is the fear of the future cost to build. Another factor I hadn’t mentioned is carrying costs. When you combine strata fees, property taxes, insurance, and debt incurred in relations to land acquisition, building materials and labour, over what could easily be a 2-3 year process, at today’s interest rates this would likely also be inhibiting. It will be interesting to see how quickly interest in building lots rebounds once we see interest rates come down.
Want to know what’s been selling in your building or Big White community?
Here’s a look at some of what sold in Q1 — 2024
Ski Townhouse
#11 - 5088 Snowbird Way - a luxurious ski-in/ski-out, duplex-style, townhouse in The EDGE just up the hill from the Gondola. This 4-bedroom and 4-bathroom townhouse offerd a total of 2,087 sq.ft. (194m²) across three floors of living space. This community captures everyone’s attention as they take the gondola up between its homes with their modern mountain aesthetic — expansive glass windows and butterfly roof design. Premium finishes include hardwood floors and granite countertops and amenities include a gas fireplace, private hot tub, and one private garage parking spot.
Learn more about The EDGE at Big White.
115A Forest Lane - a spacious 4-bedroom and 4-bathroom duplex style ski home in the quiet community of The Forest. You can ski right to your door from the Serwa’s ski run. This townhouse offered a total of 1,952 sq.ft. (181 m²) across three levels of living space. Exposed timber beams and joist on the main floor, combined with wood flooring, cabinets, and trim throughout provide that exceptional warmth of a classic ski cabin. Premium amenities include a gas fireplace, private hot tub, and a sauna.
Learn more about The Forest at Big White.
Ski Condo
#108 - 5259 Big White Road - a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, ski-in/ski-out resort condo built in 2003 offering 1,075 sq.ft. (99 m²) of living space. Advertised as, “Luxury resort style living at your fingertips, this complex has it all! The best location on the hill! World class skiing at your doorstep, tons of amenities,” could not be more true. at Stonebridge Lodge Resort you are located in the heart of the Village and right between the Easy Street and Woodpecker ski runs, and benefit from on-site restaurants, a brand new on-site day spa, heated outdoor pool and hot tubs, and more. Inside this South facing residence offered lots of light and mountain views, along with premium finishings.
#209 - 250 Feathertop Way - a fantastic ski-in/ski-out condo residence in Copper Keetle Lodge is located immediately adjacent the Shortcut Ski run and just up the hill from the Black Forest Express chair lift. A 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, ski condo built in 2006 and offering 1,528 sq.ft. (142m²) of living space to relax and enjoy family time before and after a day on the mountain. This is Big White’s only concrete building but you wouldn’t know it thanks to the wood finishings throughout including timber ceilings.
Private Ski Homes
480 Feathertop Way - ski directly to your door from Millie’s Mile ski run. This custom ski home on a corner homesite offers 3-bedrooms and 3-bathrooms across two floors and total of 1,708 sq.ft. (159m²) of living space. Advertised as, “The modernism and quality one of a kind chalet with room for the whole family.” It’s true the finished beautifully blended the classic warmth of a ski chalet with modern design, layout, and furniture. This home included a singe garage and a private hot tub on the South facing balcony.
Building Lots
The Terraces — Homesite 1 - the only building lot to sell at Big White during Q1 was this exceptional home site in small enclave of The Terraces just South of Feathertop Estates. This lot is one of just 10 (and only a few left to be built on) that sit on the ridge-line above Big White Road overlooking the Black Forest neighbourhood and with captivating views of the Monashee Mountains beyond. This irregular shaped homesite offers about 0.010 acres (328m²) of sloped terrain and will surely be home to an exquisite custom home some day.
Learn more about Feathertop Estates and The Terraces at Big White.
What does the future hold?
With the number of transactions trending downwards and inventory trending upwards as we move into Big White’s slower real estate season there is little to support a robust outlook for Q2. Additionally, the broader real estate market appears to be awakening to its typical “Spring” season more slowly this year, arguably because prices remain historically high and mortgage rates, although expected to come down, will likely remain significantly higher than they had been from 2009-2020 for the foreseeable future.
The amount of noise surrounding the economy, inflation, jobs, interest rates, etc. right now, is astonishing, yet it seems clear and thus I am speculating a June rate cut that comes with little impact to the market. A meaningful impact is likely not to come until at least Q4 and I speculate more likely that it is not truly felt until around this time next year. Fortunately, I am becoming more of a believer in the potential for the so-called “soft landing” which could mean a more pronounced rebound to real estate markets across the country and specifically at Big White once local (Canadian) consumers have that greater purchasing power.
Back to what we do know: existing ski condos listed for sale have been on the market for an average of 126 days and existing townhouses have been on the market for an average of 171 days. For private ski homes and buildings lots this figure is 195 days and 212 days, respectively. As noted in my analysis of Townhouse Inventory above, but also evident in all other segments of the Big White market, inventory is aging because there is a significant discrepancy right now between what property owners are willing to sell for and what prospective purchasers are willing to pay. Thus, I predict that the sales we do see in Q2 will be either those currently on the market that finally come to terms with market realities or those that are new to market and price with the goal of seeing success.
I see this as a fantastic opportunity for potential sellers. If a large portion of the competition is seekingly a valuation substantially higher than what prospective purchasers are willing to pay, you can stand out immensely with a realistic price.
Several development projects have taken the opportunity to get the word out about their new construction projects during the winter season. Below is a quick summary of these new construction projects:
New Construction Ski Condo
The View — in the heart of Big White’s lower village.
New Construction Townhouse
Solitude — the completion of an existing community in Happy Valley
Cambia Creekside Residences — in the new Black Forest neighbourhood
Sundance Resort — the continuation of the existing Sundance Resort community
New Construction Private Ski HOme
The Glades at Big White — in the new Black Forest neighbourhood
I hope you have made some fantastic memories with friends and family at Big White this year and if possible that you can squeeze every last bit of joy out of the remainder of the season. I look forward to updating you again as we welcome yet another Summer season 3 months from now. Until then, take care!
Thinking about purchasing at Big White? Check out these Featured Listings available now.
